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How an illusion of efficacy can be established for any treatment

Norman Fenton
22.2K subscribers
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10K views 2 years ago
(This version fixes errors in previous version =3rd time lucky! But there is still an error at timestamp 4:00 which read as follows: "9 out of 90 (NOT 9 out of 10) of the previously uninfected from the no vaccine group could have been infected in weeks 3 to 4"). In determining the efficacy of a medical intervention (such as a drug or vaccine) to stop a particular disease or virus it is typical to assume that the treatment needs time to work before a person is classified as 'treated'. For example, a person vaccinated against a virus may be classified as 'unvaccinated' until 2 weeks after getting the vaccination. This simple animation with a hypothetical example shows that, with such a classification, a placebo (i.e. no effect) vaccination can be shown to be highly effective. See also this article for more context https://www.normanfenton.com/post/mor... and note that this applies to observational studies rather than randomized controlled trials ...more
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How an illusion of efficacy can be established for any treatment
555Likes
10,489Views
2022Oct 24
(This version fixes errors in previous version =3rd time lucky! But there is still an error at timestamp 4:00 which read as follows: "9 out of 90 (NOT 9 out of 10) of the previously uninfected from the no vaccine group could have been infected in weeks 3 to 4"). In determining the efficacy of a medical intervention (such as a drug or vaccine) to stop a particular disease or virus it is typical to assume that the treatment needs time to work before a person is classified as 'treated'. For example, a person vaccinated against a virus may be classified as 'unvaccinated' until 2 weeks after getting the vaccination. This simple animation with a hypothetical example shows that, with such a classification, a placebo (i.e. no effect) vaccination can be shown to be highly effective. See also this article for more context https://www.normanfenton.com/post/mor... and note that this applies to observational studies rather than randomized controlled trials

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Norman Fenton

22.2K subscribers