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Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at olderages

  • Old-Age Mortality and Morbidity
  • Published:
Demography

Abstract

The rate of mortality increase with age tends to slow down at very old ages. One explanation proposed for this deceleration is the selective survival of healthier individuals to older ages. Data on mortality in Sweden and Japan are generally compatible with three predictions of this hypothesis: (1) decelerations for most major causes of death; (2) decelerations starting at younger ages for more “selective” causes; and (3) a shift of the deceleration to older ages with declining levels of mortality. A parametric model employed to illustrate the third prediction relies on the distinction between senescent and background mortality. This dichotomy, though simplistic, helps to explain the observed timing of the deceleration.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Populations, Rockefel1er University, 1230 York Avenue, 10021-6399, New York, NY

    Shiro Horiuchi

  2. Department of Demography, University of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, USA

    John R. Wilmoth

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  1. Shiro Horiuchi
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  2. John R. Wilmoth
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Correspondence to Shiro Horiuchi.

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This research was supported by Grants KOIAG00554, ROI-AGI0518 and ROI-AGI1552 from the National Institute on Aging. Wethank Hans Lundström, Shigesato Takahashi, and others for providing data, and Joel Cohen, Horton Johnson, and three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments.

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Horiuchi, S., Wilmoth, J.R. Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at olderages. Demography 35, 391–412 (1998). https://doi.org/10.2307/3004009

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